Based on past results, especially the World champs, Hansen of Denmark will likely be the man to beat in the Kilo tomorrow. He won in London with a 1:02.4. Cav was down in 12th at 1:04 in London but is clearly quicker now. One key will be to get ahead of Viviani who shapes up as his major threat. He went 1:02.6 at the worlds, just behind Gaviria and ahead of O’Shea. Beating out that little group will be key. Boudat was down the pack in London and could ride himself out of contention. Kluge will also need improvement from his 1:04 to keep pace.
The Frenchman and German are also weaker in the flying lap and if they don’t improve significantly could be gone as contenders after 5 events. Viviani is the fastest on paper in the flying lap, but Cavendish might well surpass him in Rio. If he does he will hope that one or two other riders (O’Shea and Tim Veldt are the best bets) can put themselves in between him and the Italian.
If all shapes up according to the form book expect Viviani to hold a slender edge over Cavendish going into the points race with a pack of Hansen, Gaviria, Kluge and possibly Boudat in hot pursuit. That could make for a cracking finale.